Hazarding a guess

kos noted this week that it seems awfully odd that President Obama and Willard Romney are running neck and neck nationally, but when lining up electoral votes, Obama has a fairly comfortable lead.

I'm certainly not an expert, but if I had a guess, it would be that the states Obama is going to lose, he's going to lose a lot worse this time around and that may be why Willard's numbers are looking better on a national level.  I think a fair amount of people voted for Obama out of fear of the economic catrastrophe caused by the Bush the Lesser administration that probably hadn't ever voted for a Democrat before and probably won't again. 

Not sure that it matters (except from perhaps it causing a change in perception, but I think a close race will bring out voters from both parties)--if Obama loses West Virginia 65-35 instead of 60-40 it makes it look like Romney did better than McCain nationally, but adds absolutely zero electoral votes over what McCain won in 2008.

Peace,
emaycee