Magical thinking

For those of you who don't have the time to pay attention, the Dow Jones Industrial was up over 450 points today.  Not being a millionaire or billionaire (who own 90% of the stocks in our markets) or a day trader, I have no idea if this increase is merited.  It very well may be.

But I do know this--it is high past time for Americans to realize that the stock market is in no way reflective of how good--or bad--the economy is doing, and in turn, how well we average Americans, who have little more than our 401ks in the market (and can't be touched without significant tax penalties until we're 59), are taking care of ourselves and our families financially.  Today's stock market increases are not indicative of the current state of our economy or its future.  To wit:

• First off, the market is being propped up right now by the Fed because of the coronavirus--they are buying up bonds to help keep it afloat.  It's keeping the markets from collapsing, but strong economies don't need propping up.
• Despite Putin puppet Donald Trump's claims, the jobs market is a mess.  The jobs being created are not new jobs--they are people going back to work because we have reopened the economy in many places.  Unfortunately, as the Fed has noted, millions more of these lost jobs are not coming back.  Worse, as states are being forced to close down establishments because they rashly reopened too quickly, those jobless numbers are only going to go up.
• An unemployment rate over 11% is the worst in America since the Great Depression.  Good economies do not have record unemployment.
• While many are crowing over strong retail sales...they had no place to go but up.  People have been stuck at home for months and had budgetary reserves that could be spent.  That extra money is going to revert to normal in a couple of months as people spend it--meaning retail sales will also come back down to earth.
• Speaking of, republicans and the Chamber of Commerce are convinced we're not going back to work because of the $600 stipend to unemployment benefits (my guess is both are more concerned about Corporate America being able to keep its slave labor--who the fuck can survive on minimum wage?) and will let it end on July 30th.  As thirty million Americans watch their family's income shrink by two-thirds (after taxes unemployment benefits are $250-$300 a week at best), what kind of an idiot do you have to be to believe retail sales aren't going to shrink as well?
• Finally, the coronavirus is showing absolutely no sign of abating, and with Donald Trump telling Americans they need to learn to live with it, it will not in the near future either.  No coronavirus turnaround, no economic turnaround.  Millions of people (especially older folks who have a guaranteed income with Social Security) are still staying home, and as people who are still working realize this past month's job numbers are as good as they're likely to get for a while, they're going to spend less, too, because they're going to be worried about how much longer they'll have their jobs.

Wall Street can blow out the cake's candles all they want, but wishing won't make the economy magically get any better.

So the stock market's numbers will continue to go up...but remember that it's really just Vegas for rich people with rigged slot machines, and in no way reflects our current economy.

Fuck Donald Trump,

emaycee